Municipal Election 2022 Notes
Looking back at the last month and a half in Victoria politics
We knew that it was going to be a wild ride before the official campaign period had even begun. We had candidates facing bullying and harassment online with several sock-puppet accounts and not-so-funny parody accounts being created. Aspiring candidates publicly voices concerns over throwing their own hat in the ring in a bout of self-preservation. During the campaign, we had signs damaged and stolen in what seemed like near daily posts and engagement from candidates themselves. We had one candidate show up in a Victoria Police Department wanted campaign and almost everyone was holding their breath at one point waiting for Ben Isitt to announce his intentions. All in all this was a wild campaign.
And now the results are in and frankly they are not very surprising. A grand total of 27,452 people cast their ballot on election day, representing very nearly 38% of the city’s electorate. In the race for mayor, Marianne Alto beat Stephen Andrew by 20% or just over 7500 votes. For council, the progressives Jeremy Caradonna, Susan Kim, Matt Dell, Krista Loughton and Dave Thompson were elected with 14,000-12,000 votes down the line. Former councillor Chris Coleman was elected with 12,000 votes and change maker candidates Stephen Hammond and Marg Gardiner were elected with 10,000 and 9,000 respectively. The progressives still very much hold the majority on council with Alto, Caradonna, Kim, Dell, Loughton and Thompson singing from similar song sheets.
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The obviously big news coming out of the election was Ben Isitt losing his seat on council. However, I feel this was an oversight on the part of political observers such as myself. Isitt opposed the Missing Middle Housing Initiative in the lead up the close of the previous council. And this election was very much about housing and specifically the missing middle proposal because council had essentially made it the major issue. This is why the results clearly show a block of support around 12,000 for those candidates which were deemed “advocates for housing” by the same people behind the missing middle push over the past few years. In past elections, Isitt was very much a part of that well-organized and mobilized coalition but this election he fell out of favour with them over the defining issue of the campaign. So really, it is not news that Isitt didn’t get elected, at least not if we accept the obvious political power being flexed by this coalition.
For me, the big news out of this election is the validation of what I was saying all along: rage and anger is not enough to effect change.
For me, the big news out of this election is the validation of what I was saying all along: rage and anger is not enough to effect change. I heard many times from change maker candidates that the business vote would be enough, that the results of the governance review combined with the one-off success of Stephen Andrew during the by-election was proof that enough people wanted change. And there were certainly a lot of people who wanted change. There was certain an element of this campaign that could have been exploited to effect change. This is what we saw happen in Vancouver, but you cannot jettison basic political organization for rage— it simply never translates into votes.
Municipal elections more so than provincial or federal elections, are about getting people to the polls and nothing more. With a voter turnout well under 50% this should be obvious to any political observer. So the candidates who win are those who can rally a coalition of voters together and consistently depend on them to show up to the polls every four years. It does not need to be a large group or one that is particularly politically engaged. It just needs to be dependable and have established communication pathways. The progressives have this in place. They have a network and coalition of supporters and donors and volunteers who can be contacted and engaged with work from a smaller group of people. We know they can get 12,000 people to the polls easily because they have done it over and over for three elections in a row now. So where does this leave the change makers? Well, until they can create and maintain a list of supporters, donors and volunteers that can be communicated to and mobilized to work and elect those candidates and that said list is over 12,000 people things will never change. That is the reality and that is what this election proved all along.
Politics shouldn’t stop when the election campaign ends. Like was mentioned during the campaign, serious candidates begin their groundwork years before the campaign period even begins. The change makers need to get serious and spend the next four years establishing their base, putting together lists, encouraging select candidates and preparing for the next election. It is the only way we are going to see the kind of change in Victoria that is going to hopefully start rolling out in Vancouver.
I was pleased to get to know you a little during the run up to the recent election; and grateful for the insights you offered. I'm very pleased to see you continuing in this format.
Cheers, Maggie